The Great Change: Into a Post Petroleum World

Let the fun begin!

I was in New York in the 30’s. I had a box seat at the depression. I can assure you it was a very educational experience. We shut the country down because of monetary reasons. We had manpower and abundant raw materials. Yet we shut the country down. We’re doing the same kind of thing now but with a different material outlook. We are not in the position we were in 1929–30 with regard to the future. Then the physical system was ready to roll. This time it’s not. We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once. Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered.

M. King Hubbert, 1983

Initially it will be denied. There will be much lying and obfuscation. Then prices will rise and demand will fall. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies. The system will initially appear to rebalance. The dash for gas will become more frenzied. People will realize nuclear power stations take up to ten years to build. People will also realize wind, waves, solar and other renewables are all pretty marginal and take a lot of energy to construct. There will be a dash for more fuel-efficient vehicles and equipment. The poor will not be able to afford the investment or the fuel. Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas will become completely frenzied. More and more countries will decide to reserve oil and later gas supplies for their own people. Air quality will be ignored as coal production and consumption expand once more. Once the decline really gets under way, liquids production will fall relentlessly by five percent per year. Energy prices will rise remorselessly. Inflation will become endemic. Resource conflicts will break out.

Colin Campbell, March 2002

by Albert K. Bates

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The Great Change:

We are in a defining phase of human evolution. Fail, and we relegate life on the planet to fungi deep in caves and bacteria on the ocean floor, if that. Succeed, and we take the next step in our own progress as a species — and life is, once again, truly great.

The current mix of challenges before us include:

The Energy Crisis: we have exhausted a supply of fossil sunlight hundreds of millions of years in the making. That savings account is almost gone. Now we have to learn to subsist upon our daily income.

The Resource Crisis: Malthus was nearly right, but didn't foresee technological advances. Limits to Growth was spot on! We have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet for this many humans consuming this much of everything. We have to tear up the credit cards and live within our budget. We have to make space for all the other species and the web of nature that supports the whole ballgame.

The Climate Crisis: The budget is now 350 parts per million of carbon (equivalent) in the atmosphere. We are north of 380, which means we need to sequester more than we emit, immediately, or 6 degrees, 12 degrees, and 18 degrees warmer are all theoretically possible. None of those is survivable by homo sapiens, even deep underground.

Ourselves: We are not biologically or culturally prepared for the new rules. If we are not to be remembered as a black smear in the strata, discovered millions of years from now by descendants of those microbes clinging to the innards of the rovers we sent to Mars, we need to change how we think, and act, and quickly. Delay, obfustication, manipulation and war are no longer serious options. That part of our evolution is now history. We are homo gestalt.

The Great Change follows our conscious choice to turn away from barbarism, conflict, xenophobia, and alienation and towards eco-communitarism, peace and freedom. From that calm and secure center we will build the world to come. And, it will be wonderful.

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. *download Albert's Mayan Riviera slide show (11 Mb).Albert talks at a resort hotel in the Mayan Riviera about Mexico's oil-and-tourism economy, economic vulnerability, the asteroid, the fisherman, coral reefs and coastal trade routes of the Maya, hurricanes, ethanol and tortillas, the possible extinction of life on Earth, our Achilles Heel of linear thinking, and the spark of hope in an age of despair. download Albert's Bolinas California slide show (14 Mb).* *download Albert's IPC-8 (Brazil) slide show (14 Mb).* *download Albert's ICSA-9 (Italy) slide show (12 Mb).* *download Albert's ICSA-9 paper on sustainability (88 Kb).* *view Albert's Cultivate Culture Night (Dublin) YouTube interviews.* *download Albert's Fall 2007 New York slide show (10 Mb).* *download Albert's Fall 2007 Philadelphia slide show (9 Mb).* *download Albert's interview on KCBR (14 Mb).* NPR's Guy Rathbun asks about the slope of the curve, urban permaculture, petro-product ubiquity, Lovelock's worst case, climate mitigation by massive desert reforestation propelled by coastal desalination run on wind and tidal energy, fireside chats, tortilla wars, permafuels, politicians with toes in the water, rain barrels and root cellars, Cuba, the Classic Inca civil society, food substitutions, and surfer lifestyles.. Listen to Albert and Dmitry Orlov on the C-realm podcast. *download Albert's March 2008 Sweetbriar College show (19 Mb)* *download Albert's May 2008 Heartwood climate change show (21 Mb)* *download Albert's June 2008 Albuquerque show on ecovillages (16 Mb)* *download Albert's June 2008 Grand Rapids show on ecovillages (14 Mb)*